Lady C's InfoNapsterizer

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8.10.2004

Polling Stories - 1 -- The "no" or "baby" bounce?

Tamara Baker makes a useful distinction between the headline numbers and the internals. But even with the headline numbers, the MSM provides a rather puzzling story of the post-convention bounce that wasn't. Kerry clearly made headway across a variety of indicators. Given the size of the electorate that (1) said it had already made up its mind pre-convention and/or (2) wasn't watching, the Dems didn't do half bad. But it wasn't the 6+ points pundits had predicted Kerry would need to come away with from the convention.

Galluping Nonsense
I Won't Touch This with a Ten-Foot Poll
by Tamara Baker

August 2, 2004 -- SAINT PAUL (apj.us) -- Well, well, well.

First we have Newsweek with a poll that allegedly only shows a so-called "baby bounce" for Kerry -- even though the portion of the poll conducted AFTER Kerry's convention speech shows a ten-point bounce for him!

Next, we have the Gallup Organization, at the behest of USAToday and CNN, stating that in fact NO bounce happened -- even though the internals of their poll show Kerry either gaining on Bush, or increasing his lead over Bush, in every single poll category!

Something is rotten in Denmark, folks. And it's not Kerry's campaign.

There are two things to bear in mind:

Gallup polls are usually outliers with a decidedly pro-Republican bias. This has especially been the case with Bush the Lesser. As this Pollkatz graph shows, Gallup is on the whole right behind FOX News/Opinion Dynamics in terms of pro-GOP-ness.

Even some Republicans have complained about Gallup's notoriously wild poll swings, especially in their tracking polls.

But of course, we all know that the So-Called Liberal Media, or SCLM for short (thank you, Dr. Alterman), will not report any of the data behind this Gallup poll -- much less note how wildly it varies from the Newsweek one.

And this was only the Monday following the convention. The deviations of reporting from polling results (or rather the relative silence of the MSM on Kerry's continued gains) have been puzzling. What's the "script"?

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